In January 2025, the U.S. economy displayed a blend of resilience and new challenges appearing in different sectors.
Tendencias de Actividad Empresarial y Empleo
Business Activity and Employment Trends
The S&P Global Flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index, which monitors the manufacturing and services sectors, declined to 52.4 in January from 55.4 in December, marking the lowest level since April. Despite this slowdown, the index remained above the 50 threshold, indicating continued expansion. The services sector primarily contributed to this deceleration, while manufacturing experienced growth for the first time in seven months, driven by expectations of looser regulations and lower taxes under the current administration. Notably, businesses increased hiring at the fastest rate in two and a half years, signaling optimism about future economic conditions.
La confianza del consumidor disminuyó por segundo mes consecutivo en enero. El Conference Board informó una caída en su índice de confianza del consumidor a 104.1 desde 109.5 en diciembre, quedando por debajo de las expectativas de los economistas. Esta disminución refleja preocupaciones crecientes entre los estadounidenses sobre las condiciones económicas actuales y las perspectivas futuras. A pesar de los costos de préstamo más altos, las ventas minoristas aumentaron un 0.4% en diciembre, lo que indica un sólido gasto del consumidor durante la temporada festiva. Sin embargo, las percepciones sobre las condiciones actuales del mercado laboral se debilitaron y las expectativas a corto plazo sobre ingresos, negocios y empleo disminuyeron, acercándose a niveles que podrían señalar una recesión potencial.
Consumer confidence dipped for the second consecutive month in January. The Conference Board reported a decline in its consumer confidence index to 104.1 from 109.5 in December, falling short of economists’ expectations. This decrease reflects growing concerns among Americans regarding current economic conditions and future prospects. Despite higher borrowing costs, retail sales rose by 0.4% in December, indicating robust consumer spending during the holiday season. However, views on current labor market conditions weakened, and short-term expectations for income, business, and employment declined, approaching levels that could signal a potential recession.
Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy
Dinámicas del Mercado Laboral
Labor Market Dynamics
Mercados Financieros y Sentimiento del Inversor
Financial Markets and Investor Sentiment
Financial markets have exhibited volatility in response to mixed economic data and corporate earnings reports. Major indexes closed lower, with the technology sector leading the downturn. Strong housing market data contrasted with a slowdown in business activity, while consumer sentiment declined. Investors are closely monitoring these indicators ahead of key economic releases and the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions. The prospect of potential inflation stemming from proposed tariffs has also contributed to market uncertainty.
